Budget proposal prepared by the Government foresees a surplus for 2025

Last Friday, August 30, the Budget Bill was sent to the National Congress; the expectation is that there will be a primary surplus of R$3.7 billion, which corresponds to 0.03% of GDP. However, the amount does not consider the payment of overdue court orders in the amount of R$44.1 billion. If the court orders were included in the calculations, the Central Government would have a primary deficit in the amount of R$40.4 billion, equivalent to 0.33% of the Gross Domestic Product in 2025. At the end of 2023, the Supreme Federal Court authorized the exclusion of the primary payments target from the calculation due to a constitutional amendment approved in 2021.

Measures were taken with the aim of eliminating the deficit

To achieve the goal of eliminating the deficit, the bill intends for the government to continue with measures aimed at reviewing tax benefits for the population with high financial resources. The Ministries of Finance and Planning specified a reduction in mandatory spending measures in the amount of R$26 billion in 2025.

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Provisional laws will be of great importance in the Government's planning

The presidential message also mentions decisions that were approved by Congress. The most prominent provisional measures are 1,227, which was forwarded in June; this measure places a limit on the use of tax benefits and requires companies to provide mandatory details to the Federal Revenue Service about the incentives they are using. Law 14,873/2024, which limits tax compensations, is another provisional measure that is highlighted. This measure also consists of refunds of taxes that are theoretically overpaid by companies.

Laws that came into force last year are also highlighted, but will continue to increase revenue in 2025, such as the restitution of the tie-breaking vote in favor of Carf (Administrative Council of Tax Appeals); in addition to the recovery of tax credits that are carried out due to the tax transaction mechanism, and negotiations made between the Government and companies that have debts.

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