War between Russia and NATO real?
What are the chances that the war in Ukraine will result in a major conflict between Russia and NATO? Does Russia want that at all and are NATO and the European Union doing the right things to prevent such a confrontation? We present it to two experts: Rob de Wijk, founder of the The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and defence specialist Dick Zandee van Clingendael.
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European countries, including the Netherlands, supply weapons to Ukraine. Do Russia see that as direct interference in the conflict?
De Wijk is sure of it: “Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has already said that. And if you’re obsessed with NATO, which is Vladimir Putin, it’s absolutely clear that he sees this kind of arms supply as a Western involvement in the war.”
Zandee thinks that the NATO countries explain it differently for themselves: “They say: ‘We are free to supply weapons.’ But at the same time, they say, “We don’t get involved in the fight.” Us President Joe Biden also said so in his State of the Union address. And we are strengthening NATO’s external borders.
That all remains within the framework that indirectly allows Russia to continue to intervene in Ukraine.”
Zandee: “It’s about normal arms deliveries. As long as there are no demonstrable personnel from those countries in Ukraine to operate those weapons systems, they have a pretty strong defensive line to say that we are not involved. Although the Russians are going to frame it that way.”
De Wijk wonders whether it still makes sense to send weapons so openly and nakedly: “Hard sanctions are good. But if you provide military support, do it in a way that stays under the radar. You just have to know where it ends up and who uses it, and whether they can use it. Otherwise, you don’t have to do it either.
At the moment it is very difficult to say how that works in Ukraine. But that doesn’t really matter, it is now a symbolic measure with which you are involved in the conflict in the eyes of Putin. I can’t see it any other way.”
War between Russia and NATO real? ‘In Putin’s eyes, we are already involved’
Doesn’t Putin want to avoid a war with NATO at all costs?
De Wijk and Zandee agree: Russia do not want a conflict with NATO. De Wijk: “Only the Russians can easily get caught up in that, because they get caught up in their own rhetoric. So you have to think very carefully about what drives Putin now. That’s not entirely clear.”
De Wijk sees the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an example of Putin’s unpredictability. “That was already weird. Under normal circumstances, you don’t do that. There is a large amount of irrationality in it. It is done whether there is a threat, which is simply not there. But the image of that threat has taken on a life of its own.
I assume that a large part of the Russians think that this picture is correct. So you can now assume that they will take action when they deem it necessary.”
Zandee wonders what Russia has to gain from a further escalation into a conflict with NATO. “They have their hands full bringing Ukraine to its knees. Further complications do not serve that purpose.”
“The more Putin plays the card that he also goes to war with NATO, the greater the chance that NATO will actually get involved. And that’s to Putin’s disadvantage. Then the balance of forces becomes very different.”
Is NATO capable of reacting immediately with a great deal of force in such a situation?
De Wijk does not think so, at least not the European countries that are part of NATO. “We hear strong language from Europe. But the problem is: there’s nothing behind it. There is a great economy behind it, but no military power. So if it escalates, we can’t do anything.
That makes it risky. With the Americans it is different, only the problem is that most American troops are not in Europe, but in America.”
Is Europe going to deal with this situation smartly enough? Ursula von der Leyen said Ukraine could become a member of the European Union. Is that oil on the fire?
Both experts think this is indeed an unwise statement by the President of the European Commission. Zandee: “That membership is totally out of the question. In the case of Ukraine, that process takes decades. It’s a bit of a PR stunt. And I think a lot of member states have not been happy that she has done that.”
De Wijk: “Moreover, it will be interpreted in Moscow as yet another interference in the struggle. I think Biden is doing it all a lot more strategically and maturely.”
War between Russia and NATO real? ‘In Putin’s eyes, we are already involved’
So what is Biden doing well?
De Wijk believes that the American president is more professional, moderate and sensible than the European leaders in this crisis. “And if Biden says in his State of the Union address that Putin may still be surprised at what the Americans can do, then there is also something behind it.
America can make such threats, but Europe cannot. We have nothing to follow up on.”
The American response to the preparation of the Russian nuclear power is also praised. Zandee: “By not responding at all, they have responded incredibly wisely. They didn’t say anything, did nothing. That’s the wisest thing you can do in this kind of situation.”
“I think you have to see Putin’s statements about nuclear weapons as a message to NATO and especially the United States not to interfere in the conflict,” Zandee said.
Nevertheless, De Wijk takes the Russian nuclear threat very seriously. “I find that an extremely disturbing discussion. All this talk about it not going to happen: there is an intervention going on, which is also not rational. So more irrational things can happen. We really have to start from that.”
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