Where will consumers go with the decline of social media?

There is a famous saying that says: “on the internet, no one knows you are a dog”. This phrase – taken from a cartoon published in the magazine “The New Yorker”, amazingly, in 1993 – is a comment on the anonymity that the internet provides: we never know who is really behind the screen.

I always believed that this maxim would remain eternally relevant, but it gained a new, even scarier layer. Today, the person on the other end may not even be a human. By 2023, around half of internet traffic will be generated by bots.

Content produced by artificial intelligence has spread across the web, from Wikipedia to the first page of Google Images searches, making it increasingly difficult to distinguish what is real from what is fabricated.

There is a lot of evidence showing that people – ordinary users – are not sympathetic to AI. They hate customer service bots, feel that generated art and music threaten their humanity, and view brands that use self-created content without informing them as dishonest.

These feelings clearly go against the interests of large technology companies, which are investing heavily in generative artificial intelligence, spending billions on infrastructure to make it viable.

While it may be impressive at first glance, generative AI is eroding the trust people had in digital platforms. With so much AI-generated content invading key online touchpoints, it seems inevitable that consumer habits will change in response.

A wave of distrust and disinterest is taking over the internet, and marketers need to take this seriously. There is a real possibility that, in the near future, people will change the way they consume content online and that it will become more difficult to reach them using technology.

There was a time when marketers could rely on behavioral targeting and large platform-centric ad networks. But that era is coming to an end, and it's time to prepare for what comes next.

AN INTERNET REBORN AMIDST DECLINE

We are approaching a time when large platforms – especially social networks – will lose their strength. As the number of users drops, the usefulness of these platforms for advertisers decreases, and this will force them to rethink their strategies.

Since 2022, the time people spend on social media has been steadily falling, and Gartner predicts that this trend will continue. In making this prediction, Gartner highlighted some interesting points.

First, 53% of users consider that “social networks have gotten worse compared to the last year or the last five years”. Furthermore, seven in 10 believe that generative AI will make this situation even worse.

Many of those who have reduced their time on social platforms – be it Facebook or Twitter (currently X) – have ended up realizing that they don't need an alternative. A recent article from “Financial Times” reveals that the number of Brits who left Twitter after the acquisition by Elon Musk is much larger than those who migrated to Threads or BlueSky.

We are also seeing a redefinition of what “social media” means. Instead of turning to large platforms to interact online, I believe that people will migrate to smaller communities that are more focused on specific interests. These spaces can range from forums to Discord servers and Telegram groups.

These environments, naturally, are much more difficult for advertisers to penetrate than, say, Facebook or Twitter. And while advertising is seen as commonplace on social media, invasive and personalized ads are likely to be less accepted in these smaller, more intimate communities.

ADVERTISING IN SEARCH ENGINE

The outlook for search-based advertising is more complicated. Although it is quite easy and pleasant to live without social networks, it is difficult to imagine a world where people do not use Google to search for information on the web.

In February, Gartner predicted that search volume will decrease by 25% by 2026due to the rise of “AI chatbots and other virtual agents”. Given the high cost of running AI models, their propensity to “hallucinate,” and consumers’ distrust (or antipathy) toward this technology, this scenario seems unlikely.

Since 2022, the time people spend on social media has been falling and Gartner predicts this will continue.

It is much more likely that Google's position as the standard will decline, with consumers migrating to alternatives such as DuckDuckGo, Brave Search and Bing in search of better results. As the search market fragments, search-based advertising will inevitably become more complex.

It's also possible that consumers will become more suspicious of the content they see in search results and become less likely to interact with sponsored content.

AUTHENTICITY DO REAL WORLD

There is real and palpable discontent with today's web. It is important to remember that this dissatisfaction must have started even before the popularization of AI. It was caused by a series of factors, such as clickbait sites, algorithmic curation of feeds and the increasingly dubious quality of the products we use.

The difference is that, now, things are worse than ever. We are at a tipping point and people will respond by changing the way they consume content online. The next phase of the internet will be fragmented, with users interacting less and less with content outside their communities and trusted sources.

For marketers, the only option is a return to simplicity, valuing authenticity. This might mean revisiting channels that have lost popularity with the rise of digital advertising, such as TV, radio and outdoor media, or exploring word-of-mouth marketing, which sounds more human in an era where technology feels cold and impersonal.

It's essential to understand that while social media may be in decline, the desire to socialize online persists. People seek out online communities long before they world wide weblike the Usenet communities of the 1980s. And this will continue, now on niche sites and message groups.

The challenge for marketers is not just identifying these places, but understanding how to operate in them. And that won't be easy.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Chris Gadek is vice president of growth at out-of-home media company AdQuick. find out more

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