Why NATO and Netherlands almost certainly won’t send an army to Ukraine

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NATO and the Netherlands

Now that Russia has invaded Ukraine and the Western world is disgraceful about it, many AFRILATEST.COM readers are wondering about everything. Will the Netherlands and NATO also intervene militarily? Does it send soldiers that way? Could World War III Break Out? No matter how fierce the war is there, there is no reason to panic for the Netherlands, experts tell AFRILATEST.COM.

What is NATO?

• The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is a political and military cooperation between thirty countries. Besides the Netherlands and the United States, almost all EU countries are members. Canada and Turkey are also part of the organisation.
• NA-TO was founded in 1949, a few years after the Second World War. The Netherlands has been part of NATO since its foundation.
• The most important part of the treaty is Article 5: which states that an attack on one of the countries is considered an attack on all.
• We also get questions about the difference with NATO. There is no such difference: NATO is the English translation of NATO and stands for North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

“Whether the Netherlands and NATO will support Ukraine militarily? No, certainly not. Or well: not in principle ,” says Peter Wijninga, strategic analyst at The Hague Center for Strategic Studies. “Ukraine is not part of NATO.”

In that alliance of, among others, most EU countries, the United States and the United Kingdom, the so-called Article 5: an attack on one NATO country counts as an attack on all NATO countries, which must respond to it. Wijninga: “But that won’t happen, no matter how sad it is for Ukraine. Militarily they are alone.”

Why NATO

NATO and the Netherlands

In theory, countries separate from NATO can decide to support Ukraine militarily, but Wijninga does not see that happening. Countries are on the lookout. “There is no treaty that obliges them to do so. Not even the neighboring countries of Ukraine.” And not the Netherlands either. “If you as a country, without consultation with the other NATO countries, start a military adventure by, for example, helping Ukraine, you are on your own.

Then no one will come to your aid.”

There is only one exceptional (future) scenario in which the Netherlands (and allies) could help Ukraine militarily. But that scenario is still very far-fetched, Wijninga emphasizes. “If there really is a huge humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, with ethnic cleansing and huge refugee flows, then there is a chance that NATO will at some point scratch its head and think: we have to do something about this.

That also happened at the end of the years. ninety during the war in Kosovo, but there is still discussion whether that was right and legal at the time. So you can imagine that countries – and also the Netherlands – are not really eager.”

Moreover: if it were to come to that, then those would be sovereign decisions of countries, so not an obligation. The Netherlands will therefore never be drawn into the Ukraine war ‘because it has to’.

A much more likely scenario is that NATO sends (more) military personnel to Poland and the Baltic States , purely to deter Russia. “Poland and the Baltic States would like to send out a very clear signal of ‘federal solidarity’”, says Dick Zandee, head of the security department at the Clingendael Institute. 

In other words: Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would like to show Russia: stay away from our country, or we will take revenge with the help of NATO. “Some individual countries have already sent extra troops to those countries, such as Germany, the British and the Americans. But there are no concrete talks about deploying such a so-called NATO Response Force.

What is the NATO Response Force?

• A group of several thousand soldiers who can be deployed quickly.
• Countries like (in this case) Poland can ask NATO to bring in those troops. NATO must then unanimously agree.
• The first troops, the so-called ‘spear point’, can leave within two days.
• NATO countries take turns on standby. This year, the Netherlands also has a battalion ‘on standby’.
• Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Minister Kajsa Ollongren (Defence) reported that you can see “military movements” in the coming days, so that the Netherlands can take immediate action if necessary.
• In addition, NATO is looking at whether more manpower should be sent in addition to the ‘spearhead’.

Incidentally, there are no concrete signals at all that Russia also wants to invade Poland or the Baltic states after Ukraine, Zandee emphasizes. “Poland and the Baltic States are NATO territory. President Putin is not crazy.” A Russian attack on such a country would therefore be an attack on NATO as a whole.

 Wijninga does not see that happening either. “I think that the very fact that those countries are NATO members is a guarantee that Putin will stay away.”

Sending soldiers to neighboring countries is therefore actually purely to make a statement. Zandee: “Putin invaded Ukraine to put in place a ‘puppet regime’ in favor of Russia. That is his goal. So not to take Ukraine today and Estonia tomorrow, or something like that.”

Wijninga and Zandee cannot even imagine a Third World War. Zandee: “This invasion is an enormous deterioration for international relations. It will have economic consequences that will also affect the Netherlands, for example in gas prices, and an invasion as far as Kiev will generate a considerable flow of refugees.” But because you have so much breaking news these days and the images come to your living room, the battlefield suddenly seems very close.”

But no matter how bad the news is, Ukraine stands alone, Wijninga emphasizes. Zandee: “You really don’t have to worry that the Russians will soon be in Rotterdam.”

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