Data agency: Only two countries have a better chance of winning the world cup title than the Dutch team

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World cup title – According to Gracenote calculations, only Brazil and Argentina are more likely to become world champions than the Dutch national team. The data agency estimates the chance that the Orange will grab the title in Qatar at 7 percent.

world cup title

According to Gracenote, Brazil has a 20 percent chance of winning the world title for the sixth time in history. Argentina follows with a 16 percent chance.

The Brazilians have lost only three times in fifty international matches since the elimination in the quarterfinals of the 2018 World Cup, while the Argentines have been unbeaten for more than three years. However, due to the corona pandemic, both countries have hardly played against European opponents.

Together with Spain (also 7 percent), the Netherlands is the highest ranked European country. The Dutch team thus keeps Belgium (6 percent), reigning world champion France (5 percent) and Portugal (5 percent) behind them. Germany (3 percent) and England (3 percent) have even less chance of winning the world title.

Chance of world title according to Gracenote

• 1. Brazil – 20 percent
• 2. Argentina – 16 percent
• 3. The Netherlands – 7 percent
• 3. Spain – 7 percent
• 5. Belgium – 6 percent
• 6. France – 5 percent
• 6. Portugal – 5 percent
• 8. Denmark – 4 percent

Orange has a 78 percent chance of place in eighth finals

According to Gracenote, the most likely World Cup final is Brazil against Argentina with a 3.2 percent chance. The problem is that the two South American countries are not both allowed to continue as group winners, because then they end up on the same side of the schedule. In that case, Brazil may already meet Argentina in the semi-finals and a final between the two is excluded.

According to Gracenote, the chance that the Netherlands will survive the group stage is 78 percent. This puts the Orange in third place behind Argentina (89 percent) and Brazil (88 percent). After the Orange, Ecuador (54 percent) has the best chance of continuing in group A.

The chance that Qatar will reach the last sixteen is estimated by the agency at 41 percent. For Senegal, opponent of the Orange in the first game, that is 28 percent.

Of the five African countries this World Cup, Morocco has the highest chance (39 percent) of surviving the group stage. The Moroccans are in group F with Belgium, Canada and Croatia.

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