Brazilians create technology to predict dengue epidemics

Brazilian scientists from the Pontifical Catholic University of Paraná (PUCPR) developed a technology to predict dengue epidemics days in advance, according to a report in the newspaper O Globo this Saturday (16). The mathematical model created uses artificial intelligence to analyze spatio-temporal patterns of the disease, considering data such as the number of confirmed cases, hospital admissions, deaths and environmental variables, such as temperature and relative humidity.

The objective of the research is to provide accurate information about the places most likely to occur the disease, allowing alerts to be issued and preventive actions to be implemented more effectively. The model was tested in the municipality of Campo Mourão, in the interior of Paraná (PR), between 2019 and 2020, identifying, for example, that the dengue outbreak in the city originated in a local scrapyard.

_{Research can enable the implementation of prevention actions more effectively (Photo: reproduction/nuriyah/Pixabay)}

Technology will assist in implementations to combat dengue

According to Fábio Teodoro de Souza, research leader and professor at PUCPR, understanding the behavior of endemic diseases is essential for implementing effective public policies to combat them. “We want to do something that works for the whole of society”, said the researcher, in an interview with the newspaper O Globo. The technology developed aims to assist in the identification of cases, community mobilization and application of insecticides in critical locations, contributing to the prevention and control of dengue.

The forecast generated by the model can be used by health authorities to plan short- to long-term actions, preparing teams, prevention campaigns and hospital logistics. The study originated from Fábio's research on hillslides in Rio de Janeiro.

Increase in dengue cases in the first quarter

In the first three months of 2024, Brazil has already registered 1.68 million probable cases of dengue, exceeding the total number of cases in 2023, which was 1.66 million, according to data from the Ministry of Health available on the website. Arbovirus Monitoring Panel.

Despite the increase in cases, the number of deaths recorded this year (513) still does not exceed the total from the previous year (1,094). However, there are 903 deaths still under investigation, which could increase dengue mortality statistics in this two and a half month period in 2024.

Featured Photo: Aedes aegypti mosquito (Reproduction/shammiknr/Pixabay)