Does Elon Musk buy Twitter or not? Three possible outcomes

Does Elon Musk buy Twitter or not? – Tesla and SpaceX owner Elon Musk made a bid of 44 billion dollars (41.7 billion euros) for the social network Twitter last month. Nevertheless, the takeover is not yet in jugs and jars. These are the scenarios.

Twitter’s potential isn’t being exploited to its full potential, Musk says. He wants to make freedom of speech much more important on Twitter. Earlier, he complained that the company determines too much what can and cannot be said. Musk hopes to make money by attracting more users and paying subscribers.

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Although Twitter has accepted its offer, there are still hurdles to overcome before the acquisition can actually go ahead. The deal has been put on hold and it is even possible that Musk will abandon the purchase altogether.

Scenario 1: The purchase continues (Does Elon Musk buy Twitter or not?)

Musk is paying $54.20 per share, which is 54 percent more than the share price on the day before he started investing. That was at the end of January. Musk already owns the most shares, even more than Twitter founder Jack Dorsey.

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It is customary for the buyer (in this case Musk) to look at the business and accounting of the company at a detailed level after an agreement. If no strange things pop up for which there is no logical explanation, an acquisition can go ahead.

Often authorities, such as the Federal Trade Commission or the European Commission, also want to investigate these types of large acquisitions. They then examine, for example, whether a purchase is harmful to competition on the market. If the light is finally green on all fronts, we will probably be at least half a year further.

Scenario 2: Musk gets a discount

The acquisition is currently on hold, Musk wrote recently. That has to do with the number of fake and spam accounts that Twitter has communicated. According to the company, less than 5 percent of accounts are fake or spam, but Musk wants the company to show how it got that percentage.

At a meeting in Miami, Musk seemed to hint at new negotiations about the price of Twitter as a result of this news. “That’s not out of the question,” he said. What he would find a right price for the company in that case is not known.

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Musk thinks that at least 20 percent of the users are fake. “But it’s just not possible to know how many bots there are. That is as immeasurable as the human soul.”

Does Elon Musk buy Twitter or not? Three possible outcomes

Scenario 3: The purchase does not go through

“It is my intention that the purchase will continue,” Musk wrote recently on Twitter. Still, the calculation of the number of fake and spam profiles hangs over the deal like a sword of Damocles.

Musk is demanding that current Twitter director Parag Agrawal provide public evidence that Twitter is 5 percent or less bots. “The acquisition cannot go ahead until he does.”

Agrawal tried to explain in a series of tweets how Twitter detects fake profiles and how an estimate was made of the number of possible fake accounts based on that. Musk responded by asking if Agrawal tried to call the users to verify their existence and then sent a poepemoji.

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The fact that Musk is now so difficult about this information may also be a way to get out of the deal altogether. He must have a valid reason for this, for example that he has discovered fraud or if it appears that he has made a purchase on the basis of incorrect information.

If it turns out that Twitter has misjudged the number of fake profiles, that may be a good reason to cancel the purchase. Musk can still not just walk away from the deal, he has to pay 1 billion dollars.